Harga Bitcoin Turun ke Level Terendah dalam Seminggu Seiring Meningkatnya Kekhawatiran Terkait Timur Tengah — Analisis Pasar

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1153 GMT - Bitcoin falls to its lowest level in a week as tensions in the Middle East escalate, causing oil prices to rise. Attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf strengthen fears of supply disruptions and this weighs on risky assets. Meanwhile, investors continue to sell bitcoin after it hit a six-week high of $75,984 on Tuesday, LSEG data show. Charts show the crypto currency faces resistance at $76,000, while the recent drop below $71,000 means it could fall further towards $60,000, says Trade Nation's David Morrison. Bitcoin last trades down 1.7% at $70,030, having hit a low of $69,514. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

1112 GMT - The cost of default protection for euro high-yield credit rises sharply amid escalation in Middle East tensions and fears about prolonged energy-supply disruptions. Iranian attacks on Qatar's liquefied natural gas plant and other Gulf energy sites caused a surge in oil prices and raised concerns over supply. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 10 basis points to 309 bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1104 GMT - The Riksbank will most likely keep its key policy rate unchanged through 2026, SEB stategists Amanda Sundstrom and Olle Holmgren write. The central bank has emphasised the high level of uncertainty and readiness to act if needed. It also presented two alternative scenarios and implications from the Middle East conflict. This illustrates that changes to the policy rate may be needed if the global situation changes, the strategists say. SEB had expected the Riksbank to remove from its rate path the small probability for a hike in the fourth-quarter this year. However, it remains in place. "This should not be a major market mover in this environment," the strategists say. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

1052 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds could face increased volatility as markets analyze prospects for another Bank of England interest-rate cut, eToro's Lale Akoner says in a note. The latest U.K. jobs data shows the labor market is stabilizing, but the data is unlikely to change the BOE's stance in the near term, Akoner says. Rising energy costs due to the Middle East war raise inflation risk, however, and could limit the BOE's scope to cut interest rates in the coming months, she says. Ten-year gilt yields hit a 6.5-month high of 4.835% earlier and last trade at 4.824%, 7.3 basis points higher on the day, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1047 GMT - The Riksbank left its rate and rate path unchanged, and Handelsbanken senior economist Magnus Lindskog says it could have done little else amid extreme uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict. "For now, uncertainty is the only certainty - and waiting for clearer signals is the only viable strategy." Market reactions are muted, he adds. The euro trades steady on the day at 10.7824 Swedish kronor. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

1041 GMT - Surging gas prices could see U.K. inflation hit 4.0% this year, Rob Wood at Pantheon Macroeconomics says in a note. U.K. natural gas spot prices rose roughly 30% from Wednesday's close. "We estimate that energy prices this morning would mean that inflation falls only a little further, to 2.8% in April, before rising back above 3% in May, to 3.9% in August and to 4.0% in November," Wood says. Pantheon is starting to include second-round effects in its inflation outlook because inflation above the psychologically-significant 4.0% level tends to drive up household inflation expectations. "The [Bank of England] will have to be careful if there is a real risk that headline inflation rises back above 4% and maybe towards 5%," Wood says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

1019 GMT - The Riksbank held rates and left its rate path unchanged but stands ready to act if necessary. The central bank is expected to keep its rate unchanged for some time, while developments in the Middle East call for vigilance. "The bank is taking a wait-and-see stance amid the increased uncertainty," Nordea chief analyst Torbjorn Isaksson writes. A rate cut is "off the table for now" and rate hikes are possible if energy prices take off. However, it's important to remember that Swedish inflationary pressure is currently low, Isaksson says. Energy prices therefore need to rise markedly before inflation becomes uncomfortably high. "We keep our forecast that the Riksbank will stay on hold at 1.75% throughout 2026," he says. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

1011 GMT - Weak U.K. labor market data indicate that "the bar to a Bank of England rate hike is high," ING's James Smith says in a note. The U.K. unemployment rate remained unchanged at an elevate level of 5.2% in the three months to January. Average wage growth, excluding bonuses, slowed to 3.8% in the three months to January from 4.2% in October to December. "We still think the next move is more likely to be a rate cut, even if the timing is increasingly uncertain," Smith says. However, rising energy prices are causing money markets to price in a 60% chance of a BOE rate increase in June, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1005 GMT - Soaring oil prices accelerate a selloff in U.S. Treasurys, particularly short-dated Treasurys. Brent crude last trades at $118.68, having hit an intraday high of $119.13, as attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf strengthens fears of supply disruptions. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held rates on Wednesday and suggested a near-term cut was unlikely. "Escalating tensions in the Middle East remain a key market force, with continued disruptions to regional energy infrastructure pushing oil prices higher and amplifying inflation concerns," says Naga's Frank Walbaum in a note. The two-year Treasury yield rises to 3.830%, the highest since August, before easing to 3.816%--still up 7.5 basis points on the day--, according to Tradeweb data. The 10-year yield rises 3.2bps at 4.287%. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0957 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds rise faster than their eurozone and U.S. equivalents. Rising oil prices have sparked renewed concerns about inflation, which could prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates. "The British economy is highly sensitive to energy prices," Swissquote's Ipek Ozkardeskaya says in a note. The BOE is expected to keep rates unchanged in a decision at 1200 GMT. Meanwhile, U.K. money markets price in a 60% probability of the BOE raising interest rates in June, LSEG data show. "The higher energy prices climb, the further away the dream of a BOE cut drifts," Ozkardeskaya says. U.K. 10-year gilt yields rise 6.5 basis points to 4.816%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0935 GMT - Demand for Swiss watches remains on track for a gradual recovery for now, but war in the Persian Gulf could pose a threat, analysts at Bernstein say in a note. The sector has been struggling with weak demand as well as trade conflicts with the implementation of tariffs in the key U.S. market. "The other key risk to watch out for is the development in the Middle East, which was a rare spot of growth in 2025 for the sector," the brokerage says. The consequences in the short term might be limited if the conflict can be quickly resolved, the analysts say. However, indirect impacts including reduced travel, higher oil prices, inflation, and weaker consumer confidence from a drawn-out conflict could threaten early signs of recovery. (andrea.figueras@wsj.com)

0931 GMT - Taiwan's central bank is likely to leave interest rates on hold at 2% for the foreseeable future, says Jason Tuvey, economist at Capital Economics in a note. Taiwan faces paying much higher prices on the global market to meet its energy requirements, but planned price caps will slow the pass-through to local energy prices and inflation, he says. Although the central bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 1.80% from 1.63%, the economist reckons that it's unlikely for inflation to emerge as a policy concern. "The uncertainty created by the conflict may contribute to some steam coming out of the economy but, for now at least, we expect growth to hold up well over the rest of this year and into 2027," he adds.(sherry.qin@wsj.com)

source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260319004217:0/